Analysis
Construction to 2040 — technology strategy as a management standard
The AI Business Center Foundation (AIBC) is a think tank and advisory partner that helps the boards of construction, industrial and technical-services companies adopt artificial intelligence so that it delivers measurable results and builds competitive advantage. This analysis sets out our thesis on how the role of technology in construction companies will change by 2040.
Technology is no longer an add-on to construction. It is becoming part of company strategy
Our thesis from 2025 still holds: by 2040, construction companies will have their own technology strategy as standard, analogous to a financial strategy or an environmental policy. Companies that do not develop one will act reactively, adapting to the requirements of investors, contracting authorities and regulation instead of setting the pace.
This is a forecast, not a prediction of specific tools. That is why we talk about what a company should have, not about what it should acquire.
The starting point
Poland starts from a low base. According to Eurostat (data for 2025), 8.4% of Polish companies with 10+ employees use AI, against around 20% on average in the EU. The gap means risk, but also opportunity: companies that organise their processes now can avoid the mistakes of earlier implementations.
What drives the change
- Staff shortages. Mid-level technical staff are hard to recruit, so office and site supervision work has to become more efficient.
- Requirements of investors and contracting authorities. Reporting on progress, costs and environmental impact in an increasingly standardised form.
- The pace of tender procedures. Less time to prepare a bid with a precise schedule and budget.
- Regulation. The European framework for artificial intelligence and environmental reporting, which sets out the rules of the game for all market participants.
Scenario to 2030
Solutions that support scheduling, quality control, cost analysis and document workflow will become widespread. In most companies this will be a gradual process: from tests on selected contracts, through pilots with measurement, to implementation across the organisation. The advantage will go to companies that describe their processes and appoint process owners before acquiring tools.
Scenario 2030–2040
Data-driven solutions will become part of the company’s infrastructure, as self-evident as building information modelling is today. They will be used not only on large projects but also in the construction of industrial halls, office buildings and residential buildings, because contracts, regulation and the expectations of institutional investors will begin to require them.
The European Union is betting on transparency and safety. In our assessment, European companies may in the long run gain credibility from this in markets that adopt similar standards, but this is a hypothesis that will have to be tested.
What to do today
- Identify the processes with the greatest potential and the greatest value for margin.
- Describe them with their owners, in a form not tied to a specific tool.
- Organise data and names across departments and systems.
- Develop the analytical and technological competence of existing staff.
This is the essence of semantic transformation, that is, organising a company’s names, processes and data so that people, language models and board reports understand them the same way.
What has changed since first publication
- We have removed figures on technology adoption in construction in the US and Poland, as well as company statements and comparisons of capital expenditure that had no stated source.
- We have replaced them with Eurostat data for 2025.
- We have marked explicitly what is a forecast and what is a hypothesis.
Frequently asked questions
Is the forecast to 2040 a prediction of specific technologies?
No. It is a thesis about management: construction companies will have a technology strategy just as they have a financial strategy today. The specific tools will change many times; described processes, data and competence will remain.
What can a construction company do today?
Identify the processes with the greatest potential, describe them with their owners, organise the data and develop the competence of existing staff. These are investments that keep their value whatever tools appear in the years ahead.
Let’s start with a conversation
Let’s talk about technology strategy before contracting authorities start to require it.